Dispute Aging Curves
Up: Dispute Infrastructure See also: Liability Horizons
Definition
Dispute Aging Curves (Vintage Analysis) visualize the arrival of disputes over time for a specific sales cohort. Instead of looking at disputes as they happen, it answers: "For the sales we made in January, how many disputes have arrived by Day 30? Day 60? Day 120?"
Why it matters
Forecasting. Disputes take up to 120 days to fully materialize. If you only look at "Today's Disputes," you are missing 90% of the risk from recent sales. The Curve allows you to predict the "Final Loss" of a cohort based on its early trajectory, allowing you to stop a bad marketing campaign before the bills come due.
Signals to monitor
- Curve Velocity: The slope of the line. Is it flattening (Safe) or going vertical (Danger)?
- Day 30% Projection: "Typically, 40% of disputes arrive by Day 30. If this month is 60%, the final rate will be 1.5x higher than normal."
- Cohort Delta: Comparing the current cohort's curve against the 12-month historical average.
Breakdown modes
- The Long Tail: A forgotten recurring billing charge generating a "curve spike" 11 months after the initial sale.
- The Delivery Spike: A shipping failure that causes the curve to hit its maximum on Day 15 (when customers expect the goods).
- Cohort Rot: A specific marketing campaign or affiliate partner bringing in users with permanently worse aging curves than organic users.
Where observability fits
Observability provides predictive alerting. By modeling the "Expected Shape" of your curve, the system can alert you on Day 10 that a cohort is likely to breach network thresholds on Day 60, giving you 50 days to take corrective action.