Ledger
EVERY SIGNAL, THREAT, ACTION, AND OUTCOME · INCLUDING THE MISSES
PREDICTIONS RESOLVED
38
90 DAYS · 7 STILL OPEN
PREVENTED
29
76% OF RESOLVED
MATERIALIZED
4
10% · 2 WERE PREDICTED, 2 WERE NOT
FALSE POSITIVES
5
14% · WE LOG THESE TOO
TIMESTAMP
KIND
ENTRY
ACTOR
OUTCOME
04-24 · 09:08:14
THREAT
T-0042 opened: Stripe reserve action likely · 6–11d · confidence 0.73
SYSTEM
PENDING
04-24 · 09:08:01
SIGNAL
Chargeback rate crossed 2.10% on 14d window (was 1.84%)
STRIPE · LIVE
—
04-23 · 22:14:00
SIGNAL
Stripe published underwriting policy memo · 9 days old · ingested
PUBLIC
—
04-22 · 14:42:09
ACTION
Approved: shift $18k/day to Adyen for 7d (T-0039 mitigation)
A. ZHANG
—
04-22 · 11:18:33
OUTCOME
T-0039 closed: no reserve imposed · processor confirmed account in good standing
SYSTEM
PREVENTED
04-19 · 08:00:00
OUTCOME
T-0036 closed: predicted reserve did not materialize within window · model overweighted MCC drift
SYSTEM
FALSE POS.
04-15 · 17:22:51
OUTCOME
T-0034 closed: Braintree imposed 5% reserve · we predicted 6–14d, actual was 9d
SYSTEM
MATERIALIZED
04-12 · 02:00:00
ACTION
Silenced: T-0033 · reason "duplicate of T-0031, processor confirmed" · expires 04-19
M. PATEL
—
04-09 · 09:14:02
OUTCOME
UNFLAGGED reserve event: Adyen imposed 3% on subset of MCCs · model did not predict · post-mortem opened
SYSTEM
MISS
04-08 · 13:55:18
THREAT
T-0031 opened: Adyen volume concentration · weak signal · 30+d window
SYSTEM
PREVENTED
04-04 · 10:00:00
SIGNAL
Calibration: model retrained on 412 events (was 388) · weights re-balanced
SYSTEM
—
EVERY ENTRY IS APPEND-ONLY. NOTHING CAN BE EDITED OR DELETED FROM THIS LOG, INCLUDING PREDICTIONS WE GOT WRONG. THIS IS THE PRODUCT'S CREDIBILITY.