T-0042 · STRIPE · RESERVE LIKELY
OPENED 6 MIN AGO MODEL CONFIDENCE 0.73
← THREATS  /  T-0042
Stripe is likely to impose a rolling reserve of 5–15% within 6–11 days, based on chargeback velocity crossing their stated threshold and two correlated behavioral patterns.
PROCESSOR
STRIPE
EXPECTED ACTION
RESERVE 5–15%
WINDOW
6 – 11 DAYS
YOUR EXPOSURE
$680,000 · 90D HOLD

CAUSAL CHAIN

01
SIGNAL · OBSERVED
Chargeback rate 2.10%
14d window · your data · 09:08 UTC
02 →
CROSSES THRESHOLD
Stripe trigger 1.80%
policy + observed peers · MCC 5967
03 →
CORRELATED PATTERN
Refund ratio drift +0.4pp
28d window · weight 0.31
04 →
MODEL PROBABILITY
73% within 6–11d
trained on 412 reserve events
05 →
EXPECTED IMPACT
$680k held 90d
at midpoint reserve · 8%

EVIDENCE · 14 SIGNALS

01 Chargeback rate 2.10% sustained over 14d STRIPE · LIVE WEIGHT 0.42
02 Refund ratio drift +0.4pp over 28d STRIPE + ADYEN WEIGHT 0.31
03 3 disputes filed under reason code 10.4 in 7d STRIPE WEIGHT 0.19
04 Volume spike +34% on a single MCC 5967 STRIPE WEIGHT 0.14
05 Avg ticket size up $48 · suggests product mix shift DERIVED WEIGHT 0.11
06 Underwriting policy memo updated 9d ago PUBLIC FILING WEIGHT 0.09
07 2 peers in same MCC reserved within last 30d NETWORK · ANON WEIGHT 0.08
… + 7 supporting signals · click to expand VARIOUS WEIGHT 0.21

RECOMMENDED MITIGATION

ACTION · APPROVAL REQUIRED
Shift $42k/day of card-not-present volume from Stripe to Adyen for 14 days. Open disputes on three winnable chargebacks. Send pre-approval packet to Stripe underwriting.
APPROVAL DISABLED UNTIL CAUSAL CHAIN AND EVIDENCE ARE READ. SCROLL TO ENABLE.